Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . Last week, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) reneged on his pledge to step down after two terms and announced he would seek re-election.. Have you been living under a rock? Those is Tim. Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who highlighted economic and educational issues to defeat his Democratic rival last year. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. 1990 FLEER. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. Trump is quite unpopular here. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. John F. Kennedy 1961-63. For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. With the combine drills about to start from Indianapolis, @TheRealForno has a three-round mock draft to get you excited The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. A spokesperson for Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says he was unaware of an exchange between his staff and that of Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. A week ago, Republicans led Democrats by 2.6 points (45.4 percent to 42.8 percent). In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. Senators, behind Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania (36%) and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (33%), according to an April 2022 report from Morning Consult. Toward the bottom of the list are five governors running for reelection whose approval ratings dont look as strong as they seem after taking partisan lean into account. Chris Sununus net approval rating is +30, so he is expected to comfortably win reelection. But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images), Johnsons Standing in Wisconsin Declined Over Bidens First Year in Office. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. Early polling indicates a tight race. In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. But PARS reveals why the handicappers arent so sure. Results from the most recent update. But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. But the electorate has hardened around him. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker,5 41.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Voters do not. Announces Mary Ellen Stanek as Board Chairwoman and adds Dr. Joan Prince and Charles Harvey to Board of Directors, Tiffany Tardy Named New Executive Director of MPS Foundation, DWD Announces Appointments of Jeremy Simon as Assistant Deputy Secretary, Arielle Exner as Legislative Liaison. In Marquettes last poll, 36% of voters viewed him favorably and 58% viewed him unfavorably. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. His race is expected to be very competitive. Some recent surveys put his approval at 35%, while a March Marquette University Law School poll found him at just 33% support. He has been endorsed by well-known political figures including Sens. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. 2023 CNBC LLC. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. This is less true for governors, however. And you might expect Democratic Gov. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. The state is closely divided in its partisan affiliation- 29% say they're Democrats, 31% say they're Republicans, and 39% say they're [] Tony Evers, who is down from 50% to 45%. Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Because Massachusetts is so blue, thats no big whoop in the Bay State but in reddish Florida, it denotes a talented politician with a lot of cross-party appeal. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. -36. Ronald Reagan 1981-89. ", "It's not like we don't have enough jobs here in Wisconsin," he told reporters in February. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-61. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). As a result, more governors than senators have PARGs at the extreme ends of the spectrum, as you can see in the table below. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); Based on Morning Consults approval ratings1 for every senator and governor in the country (now updated for the first quarter of 2022), PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a term from baseball, replacement-level) candidate from their party would be. Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting that they are capable of outperforming the base partisanship of their state. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Gerald Ford 1974-77. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . By Eli Yokley. But Democratic Gov. We want to hear from you. Eli Lilly CEO announces it will cap out-of-pocket costs for its insulin at $35, GOP bill would fund security grants for 'pregnancy centers' only if they oppose abortion, House Republicans vote for repeal of climate-related investment regulations, Rep. James Comer criticizes U.S. attorney for not investigating Biden's dead son, House GOP members interrogate Biden administration efforts to address environmental racism, Fact check: No, the Biden administration is not trying to ban gas stoves. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (among other news outlets) is reporting that two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has decided to run and will make his formal announcement very soon: Johnson . Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (. The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. Wednesday, August 17, 2022, 2:25pm. But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. The idea behind these stats is that a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Massachusetts isnt the same as a 70 percent approval rating for a Democrat in Florida. His current term ends on January 3, 2029. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks.